Fall 2020 Golden Quarterly Newsletter

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What’s Next For America

The election is coming up, and it will serve as a referendum from the people on which way they want the country to go not only politically, but culturally. We are in an era of great change, where new generations favor socialism, social justice, and centralized technocratic expert rule. This is not all their fault, it is the product of years of socialized education propagated by a state that wishes to consolidate and grow its power.

Nikolai Kondratiev

Plus, we have demographic changes. The Baby Boomers are retiring in droves and no longer hold control over the economic power in the country. The Millennial’s, and to a lesser extent, the Gen X generations, are taking economic control and exercising their political power at the polls. These generations are far removed from the war time generation of WWII who made great sacrifices to survive creeping communism, and the subsequent blooming of the American superstate, in the 50’s and 60’s which saw American rise to the most powerful economic and political force in the world. The Millennials are the “fall season” generation within the Kondratiev wave theory, where society destabilizes from previous cultural and political standards.

And it will end with the collapse of the American dream during the next 10 years into a winter period which the Gen Y youngsters will unfortunately inherit. I say unfortunately not only for them, but because two of my children who are in that generational group.

I get the sense that this generation does not have the same hope that mine did growing up in the romance of the 1980s. The Berlin Wall fell, we had a peak in musical creativeness, economic growth, and sense of cultural blending. My wife and I are a product of this time, having grown up in the 70s and 80s, graduating high school in 1993 and getting married in 2000.

She is of Asian descent, growing up in a peaceful Cambodia until the Khmer Rouge, and their allies the Viet Cong, decided to rape the country of its resources, destroy its economy, and murder its educated workforce. The rest were forced into labor camps to slowly starve to death and die. She, thankfully, escaped imprisonment, after walking through the killing fields of land mines, and eventually made it to the United States.

Now, however, we are a nation divided along both class and racial lines. The mass immigration from Central and South America along with importation of students from across the world have diluted the American cultural identity. I am not against immigration – my family came over from Germany in the mid-1850’s and my wife in 1980’s – so we are a product of America’s openness to foreign peoples.

But both our families followed the rules when immigrating, and most that come to the US now flow through the borders illegally. And the political establishment gains from this in terms of bought votes through social programs, so that is not likely to change until complete economic collapse in America.

In that case, immigrants will then look to the next rich country to loot, which will be China. Unfortunately for them, the Chinese communists do not take well to foreigners and often stick them in jail, shoot them, export them, or put them in camps. So likely the collapse will see all of the immigrants stuck in the same collapse American state as we all are. And only then will we be forced to work together or face mass starvation and poverty.

Eventually America will rebuild, but it will take a couple of generations for it to happen. The last American depression lasted from 1929 till 1954, and that was during a time of relative political and cultural stability in American history. Now we have neither.

Sir John Glubb
Sir John Glubb

In fact, this is the third such economic and political crisis in American history since the Revolution. And Sir John Glubb’s research shows that upon the third crisis, society’s over history have collapsed. Each turning period is typically marked by 4 generational seasons, from spring to Winter, each lasting approximately 20 years. Upon 3 such Kondratiev turns, or at about 230-250 years, the dominant super state collapses and another one follows in its wake.

We are at the 244 year mark since the Declaration of Independence announced our separation from Britain on our own course, for good or worse. Despite many setbacks and errors, the American experience has been mostly positive. We have been the light of freedom for most of the world. Our Constitution inspired a large portion of the world to provide freedom for its peoples for the first time in human history. The positive effect our Founding Fathers had on the world cannot be understated.

But alas, as all great nations do, America, as we now know it, must fade into the past. This fact is extremely hard for Americans to accept, and indeed despite the obvious signs, many never will. Blame will abound in all corners, but effective solutions will be as rare as the precious metals. And with that transition, we move to the metals update.

Gold, Silver, and the 2020 Presidential Election

The metals are both in consolidation patterns, patiently biding their time till they are again freed to trade much higher. This phase could last a couple of more months, but there are big pressures coming in November and December that will likely push their momentum forward again as they challenge previous 2020 highs.

The election in November is the big political turning point. Despite searching through all of the available polls, and watching the debates and town halls, I still do not know who will win. On the one hand, we have the Democrats and their schemes of mail-in votes and recruiting illegal aliens to vote as dead people.

Then we have the conservative wave roiling up in the rural areas and conservative districts, with their resultant anger from left-run cities collapsing into ruins from the Antifa and BLM riots, burning buildings, and murders. The nation is definitely divided among political lines, with one third rabid left, one third staunch right, and one third undecided and being swayed back and forth. Some $10.3 billion has been spent on this election cycle thus far, which is a stunning number.us election 2020

Given the sheer amount of news, and also disinformation, in 2020, there is no clear direction an independent observer can take to call the election. The polls are often rigged in favor of one candidate using oversampling, so I tend to discount their conclusions. After all, the major ones were all wrong in 2016 when Trump got elected. And the media is blatantly left-leaning with very little subjectivity, so watching them for valid signals is a waste of time. I think this is a very close election either way.

Many on the right have said Trump landslide, but I don’t think they understand how many people have gotten out to early vote this year. And generally that is bad for conservatives in previous elections. It means the Democrats ability to swing the independents to their favor is working, and so I don’t see a case for a landslide in either direction for this election.

What we know is that no President in recent times has won re-election during times of recession. Regardless of who caused the recession, and the COVID catalyst behind it, the public tends to vote along economic lines.

Whether the election is contested and goes to the Supreme Court is of little real importance; the major factor is that this is likely the last normal election we will have in America for quite some time. All elections after this will likely be for radical right or left wing candidates after the economy collapses in 1-2 more years.

Metals Futures

So I expect “YUGE” volatility in gold and silver in the next two months. Not only for the election, but because December is a showdown month in the metals on the futures exchange known as the COMEX.

Those that have been following my free articles and videos on YouTube since July 14th have realized that we are in historic times in the metals. The futures market has been a battleground for some time, but the game has amped up. There are massive amounts of volume of paper futures contracts, trading at many multiples of world production of the precious metals on a monthly basis. We are in a metal pricing war, and that war exists for one reason – to take control of the physical precious metals.

eligible gold stocks comex

The charts show that most metal traded since 2002 have either been kept in storage as “eligible” or taken off the exchange. The COMEX liquid gold was in crisis earlier this year, and much has been brought over from London this year to bolster supplies. Now we have millions of ounces, about half of which is sitting in JP Morgan’s vault, from which longs will likely heavily draw from in December.

uk gold imports

In 2019, there was literally no gold coming from the UK to COMEX (see above chart), but 2020 has changed that trend. This as the same time COMEX has doubled bar providers and created a synthetic gold contract called the ACE utilizing London 400 oz bars in fractional form.

uk to us exports imports gold

Obviously, as gold demand has increased on the most traded market in the Western world, the market has responded by sourcing whatever free gold is available. From past estimates, London had at most 700 tons of free gold available. This won’t last long at current delivery rates.

london gold floats

I want to clear up a misconception about COMEX. Some think that the gold has to come off the exchange to count as being in private hands. As a matter of fact, all “eligible” gold is privately titled, and most of it over the last 18 years has not come back to the exchange in traded “registered” gold stocks.

And from the warehouse delivery reports, we have seen plenty of both metals taken off the market into private hands. What refilled COMEX is mostly London gold, NOT previously “delivered” gold sitting in eligible inventories from the last two years on the futures exchange.

So while the exchange has in the past claimed liquidity due to booming “eligible” stocks, the CME Group has also retraced and softened their stance no how much of that is actually liquid for future physical deliveries. We now know their previous promises of a liquid gold market were false, and they were in effect bailed out by the LBMA and London gold market to prevent a massive gold short squeeze and collapse of the COMEX precious metals exchange.

What happens in the election leading up to December could start another run on gold and silver in the COMEX. I think gold will be taken off first as the primary safe haven, and silver will follow when gold stocks run low. Only industrials are really taking silver off the COMEX now to deal with supply shortages due to mine shutdowns this year.

How long will the London-provided gold on COMEX last? I doubt very long, because we have many players in the world moving to gold. First and foremost are China and Russia, both of whom can trade, through banking proxies, on the COMEX as a world-wide market. COMEX as designed that way as it trades for nearly 23 hours a day, and is available on the GLOBEX across the world.

And we have wealthy individuals taking delivery as well which we can see in the Commitment of Traders and metals delivery data. The problem is that we don’t have transaction-level data to prove exactly who is taking the metal, so we can only estimate at a 1000 foot level what is happening. But the aggregate data is clear on how much gold is moving through the exchange and generally what groups of traders are taking hold of it.

What does this mean for gold and silver? I think 2021 will be a huge bull year for both metals. The level of uncertainty in the US economy is accelerating, and the smart money has already begun moving in strongly to gold. More and more people will move into both metals as the destabilization increases. We are in the deflationary phase before the accelerated final leg of credit expansion leading up to the “crack up boom”. Who knows when the final stroke in economic crash happens, but we know, from a milestone perspective, that it is on its way.

Central Bank Digital Currencies

Th IMF has been planning since 2015 to institute central bank crypto, or digital currencies, across the central bank system. This has put a crimp in the commercial banking system plans, who are also rushing to implement digital ledgers for their bank accounts. JP Morgan already has a digital coin used for commercial transactions, and Goldman Sachs announced this year plans to explore the same strategy.

jpm coin

The credit unions are already using blockchain competitor Hashgraph, which has improved security and transaction validation rates over the blockchain. I think Hashgraph, or copies of it, eventually supplant the blockchain model provided by Bitcoin simply because it is magnitudes of orders more efficient than Bitcoin ever was. And it doesn’t require any excess energy or commodities consumption. This doesn’t really bode well for any blockchain-based currency, whether it be privately issued or promulgated by state governments.

Regardless of which technology wins, the central banks are implementing their CBDC’s post-haste in time for the next crash, which will likely take out the current version of the US dollar. With all of the dollar-denominated debt around the world and the lack of confidence in America to ever pay it back, the dollar’s days are numbered. Already, Russia and China are trading using their currencies, and many countries are setting up gold-based contracts as well.

What many don’t realize is that the IMF, which is the most global agency to publicly espouse the state digital currency plan, does business with many different countries around the world. They are not a western institution; indeed they were co-founded by China for whom their Yuan currency is also part of the IMF SDR basket of currencies. Meaning, the Yuan, Euro, Yen, Dollar, and Pound are linked for as long as the IMF is a functional agency.

The IMF also loans money around the world, including struggling South American nations like Argentina who is suffering yet another currency crisis brought on by socialism and bad state debt. This time Argentina got nearly $50 billion in aid from the IMF, for which they will never likely be able to pay back without a complete economic bankruptcy and restructure. That means the IMF will soon be in the Argentinian land business as guarantees for the loans are called due.

Each major central bank will implement a digital currency, and they will all trade in baskets much like the paper ones do. The IMF plan also negatively discounts cash when deposited into the banking system as a way to discourage cash and force electronic money on the people.fiat currencies

After another generation passes, it is likely only fringe economies will still be using paper notes. And that means complete lack of privacy in economic transactions as the state ledger transactions will be tracked in real time, and profiles built for each bank account holder. The Fourth Amendment against illegal search and seizure is effectively dead in this scenario. So too goes any expectation of privacy by the average “global citizen”.

And we emphasize global, as the IMF and central banks control of the money supply will allow them to influence everyday life in most major countries in an unprecedented way. As Mayer Rothschild once said, “Give me control of a nation’s money and I care not who makes it’s laws.” The key question then becomes, who runs the IMF and what do they want?

In reality all of the governments are in league together, likely wanting to implement globally-controlled institutional (technocratic) rule. There won’t be a lot of free frontiers on this planet then, and only well-to-do will be able to move to those frontiers and build the infrastructure needed for any normal level of society to exist. Which will of course attract the statists to do the same thing they have already done everywhere else.

Many would argue this is a very pessimistic view on the world, but I am simply calling what I see as the publicly published goals of these institutions. I am not making the rules, only enlightening you as to what they are. Or shall be.

In truth, the battle for freedom has never been as important as it is now. That means every decision we make from here on out will have a greater and greater effect on our quality of life. So we better start choosing wisely.

Solutions and Next Steps

So what are next steps? There are some things we can do to protect ourselves and our loved ones. I am starting this section of the newsletter as a resource for you to use to begin implementing your plans on protecting both your wealth and general well-being.

Many of you have probably been preparing for this collapse for some time, so that means we have bit of catching up to do for the rest of you who have not. Therefore, look for this section to grow over time as we get closer and closer to the actual collapse stage of the current system.

If you have been following my free content for long and are reading this on my website GoldSilverPros.com, you know my feelings on protecting your money future financial solvency. So, today I am going to talk about resource independence. And the most important resource you can have in hard times is access to good food.

There are many options for obtaining food. Most people now get it simply by going to their local grocer. This makes sense, because it is cheaper and more convenient, not to mention you have many more options. However, the rise of big box grocery stores, and online shopping outlets such as Amazon, have raised some concerns with food quality and stability going forward.

One issue with Walmart and Amazon models is they put downward price pressure on goods while promoting mass production. Both trends lower prices and make products more available, but they also tend to lower quality over time by substituting less organic ingredients with more processed ones. That is not to say you cannot find high quality products on these outlets, just that most people will not buy them or even have access to them due to their scarcity.

Our Peppers
Our Peppers

Finding high quality organic produce, for example, that uses no chemicals n a grocery store or online is tough. And what guarantees does the purchaser have that those products actually follow best practices for food qualty? In reality, there are only two ways to guarantee food quality and purity. Those are to a) grow it yourself and b) find a reputable local grower you can trust.

Both options are more work that relying on your mass market grocer. The grow it yourself option, I can attest to from personal experience, is the most work of all. But it is also the most rewarding. There is simply no substitute for the feeling of harvesting a rich crop of healthy, wholesome food that you planted and nurtured yourself. Feeding those fruits and vegetables to my children provides me a feeling of food quality control as well as the immense satisfaction of having done a good deed as a parent.

Finding a local, reputable organic grower, however, is the next best bet for those of you who don’t want to learn to grow your own. Or, perhaps don’t have the space to do so such as you big city dwellers. Local growers are actually abundant; it is taking the time to find ones which you can trust that have the produce you want that takes a bit of work. But it is worth the time and effort to find high quality food that will nourish your bodies and those of your family.

The first thing that we do is take advantage of our local farmer’s market days. Our town has a weekly meetup on city grounds during the growing season. Here, we find vendors from all over Texas (most North, East, and Central) who drive up to sell their wares. And they sell everything from fresh produce, to animal meats, to specialized products like jams and special recipe foods using all organic ingredients.

I can say that we have found more quality options here than I have ever seen online, or even in my local Whole Foods outlet, at very competitive prices. And it helps to know we are helping our local growers and not lining the pockets of some large conglomerate corporation. Plenty of people will continue to shop at grocery stores and feed the big beasts of the industry. They will not suffer for those of us searching for higher quality local options. I prefer to help the little guy and gal who are working to benefit their family by providing high quality food options to the market.

A second step you can take is to get out of the cities and find local growers and ranchers who sell to the public. Often times you can simply find these outlets by driving through small towns and shopping local mom and pop stores. Many times, bigger local ranches will have their own family store; and in many cases smaller family farms will have marketing deals with local small town shops to sell their produce. It is a win win for the grower and the shopkeeper who can often sell at a premium to the local big box grocery outlets.

60s diner texasThe relationship reflects the model used by Americans for centuries before industrialization pulled people out of their family farms and into the cities. And that model is till alive and kicking; you just have to be willing to go out of your way a little on a Saturday morning to benefit from the hard work of these well-meaning family farms and ranches. Plus, you get the added benefit of learning your local communities and landmarks. We often travel to see small town historical landmarks with our kids to teach them our local history.

Visiting these family stores are just a side trip with big benefits. And our kids absolutely love finding rarities such as local hamburger diners with 60’s inspired decor, local sweet shops with real old-fashioned soda outlets, and handmade clothing items of high quality and uniqueness that absolutely cannot be found anywhere else. These trips have turned into mini-vacations for the family as aren’t the burden you would think in finding quality food stuffs outside of the city. I personally have begun looking forward to these trips as outlets from the daily bustle of city life.

There is much more we can cover in this preparedness category, from long term food storage to using foods to promote long term health. Rest assured that those subjects will pop up in future episodes of this newsletter; I will not abandon them here completely. In fact we will probably rotate food and health into this newsletter a couple of times per year. And we will focus on the richest and most beneficial areas of health and food security to differentiate ourselves from the typical content you may see online. After all that is why you subscribe to this website – for the high quality, well-timed research!

The Quarterly Mailbag

As our subscriber base has grown and our information services more popular, we have realize we simply cannot answer every email that we receive. Therefore, we are implementing a mail bag which will allow us to answer the most frequently asked questions in one place. Thank you to those users that have submitted questions. Even though we will not get to them all, even here, we very much appreciate you asking them as they quite often allow us to help other readers with the same questions.

“Can you share your precious metal and uranium portfolios?”
-Isasc U.

Right now I am not invested in uranium. I am, however, writing a massive review on all of the stocks I have covered in 2020 in the upcoming 2021 Winter Quarterly coming out in January. It will look back at performance, as well as previewing some new miners that I have just started following. Stay tuned for that issue, you won’t want to miss it.

“I plan to invest in several silver companies but would love to have a way to evaluate each company to differentiate which have the most potential from an investors perspective. To be honest, at this point I really don’t know how. Do you have any information that you would be willing to share on how to assess a company with respect to the production numbers and the balance sheet numbers or resources in the ground?”

-James C.

James – I do have a member ETF and stock fund buying guide that you can read here:

It provides a complete guide on what I consider is the most reliable way to value a mining stock, while also warning you if the stock is likely in a bubble. While the guide is there, it does take some work on each one that you want to evaluate. There aren’t any good shortcuts here, but you have the model to get started. Just remember that mining stocks are all speculations to some extent.

“Hi I just saw your video. I am a little concerned this company has no recent trading history.”
-Barb N.

The particular mining company Barb was asking about is Winston Gold. The reason there is less recent history is because the project was picked up by the current company on a past-producing mine. Essentially, when gold prices fell, the mine was no longer economic. Now that we are trading near all-time highs in gold, the mine appears to be very economic.

This is not abnormal in the industry as many projects are being resurrected around the world on past mines, now that the metals prices have risen substantially from years ago. This is also not limited to precious metals, it happens in the base metals also. The key is to pay attention to the management of the new company in assessing their ability to get the new project up and running, and do it profitably.

“I really enjoy your site and interviews on YouTube. Your analysis of SilverCrest in, I believe, November 2019 was amazing. Do you feel SilverCrest is overvalued at this point? “
-Andrew P.

Andrew, no I do not. They have a great resource that keeps growing, and they have additional exploration potential in a very prolific land package. They have not explored all of their existing veins, and who knows what else they may find.

Also, silver is in what I believe will be an historic bull market. So their current valuation is likely a fraction of what the company will end up as in a couple of years. More on this in January as I review all of my previous 2020 covered stocks, and also provide some new ideas for you. Don’t miss that one.

“Wanted to say thanks for making that video about the cyclical nature of society and empires. I’d heard of the shorter cycles but not the Kondratiev wave concept. I’m still surprised that video got so few views but it really helped me put some pieces together about how things work, just wanted to know that your efforts with this video at least helped one person learn something important.”
-Janis L.

You are welcome, Janis. That video is one of my most important, but it was done at the beginning of my channel when I wasn’t really emphasizing video quite yet. As you can see, I worked that topic into the discussion in this quarter’s newsletter as it is becoming ever more relevant to our current situation in the US. I think this topics deserves much more attention than it is currently getting, so I will be writing more about it as time goes on.

“So won’t dealers add their premium on top of this price too? Or is this the end-user price? Also, if that’s what it “costs” for the BU coins, would that also imply that any year BU coin would be that same price?”

-Jeff W.

So that everyone is in on the subject of the question, Jeff is asking about the raise in the price of BU (brilliant un-circulated) silver Eagles by the US Mint. The new price is $67, which is nearly triple what a typical commercial strike silver Eagle sells for.

I think that the price increase is to pay their general costs, as the US Mint treats BU coins (and proof coins as well) as numismatics. Personally, I think they are terrible numismatic investments because they lack important factors such as a) true rarity and b) historical significance.

I think there are much better numismatic coin investments you can make than BU or proof US Mint coins; this just isn’t a good one. Yes, the dealers could add their normal premium if they wish, and it could affect the market for past BU coins. That all depends on how savvy the coin buyers are, because it’s a free market!

To view my numismatic coin investment guide, please click here.

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