Austrolib Rafi: Hyperinflation, COVID, Gold, and Gambling

We met with Rafi Farber, a student of Austrian economics, and writer at Seeking Alpha and CalvinAyre, to discuss his views on COVID, currencies, gold, gambling, and more. We discussed the following topics of interest:

• Bank of Israel’s decision to print more money to combat inflation which led to the hyperinflation of the old Shekel;
• Restarting the Israeli economy by indexing prices to the dollar, issuing a new Shekel, and stopping the central bank from financing government spending directly;
• His conversation with his father on the inflation and currencies as he grew older;
• Finding Austrian economics after listening to Ron Paul in 2012;
• Open interest on the COMEX futures exchange in New York, and why more traders are likely to demand actual physical delivery of gold;
• The value of physical gold ownership versus some gold ETFs if you believe the dollar will eventually collapse – the GLD will not have any true value in that scenario;
• Why the dollar is not money, but a gold intermediary (implying that gold is actual money);
• Ownership of gold stocks is a title claim to real capital, while ownership of the GLD index isn’t because non-institutional investors cannot demand physical delivery;
• Picks mining stocks based upon jurisdiction of the mines and company balance sheet healthy;
• Best ETF if you cannot get physical gold right now is the Perth Mint Physical Gold ETF;
• US China trade relationship – US exporting inflation and China’s old mercantilist economic beliefs saddling them with US treasuries in exchange for real goods;
• The current US/China trade system must collapse as China eventually rids itself of US debt, causing a new gold standard and change in economic policies;
• When the dollar falls, all other currencies will fall;
• Calculating US must spend $100 trillion to make up for GDP falling 40% per JP Morgan’s Q2 2020 estimate, YoY;
• How COVID-19 caused casino closures and is driving gamblers to online outlets;
• Cambodia’s monopoly on the gaming market;
• How Caesars stuffed bad assets into a shell company and stuck equity holders with the fallout;
• He wrote articles warning Carl Icahn not to support El Dorado buying Caesars and the subsequent share price crash after it happened;
• Bad debt yield attracting investment and how this is a sign of debt market collapse;
• Bankruptcies are the cure to bad debt, and government’s choice of allowing them to happen or the other path of hyperinflation of the US Dollar.