Austrolib Rafi: Hyperinflation, COVID, Gold, and Gambling

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We met with Rafi Farber, a student of Austrian economics, and writer at Seeking Alpha and CalvinAyre, to discuss his views on COVID, currencies, gold, gambling, and more. We discussed the following topics of interest:

  • Bank of Israel’s decision to print more money to combat inflation which led to the hyperinflation of the old Shekel;
  • Restarting the Israeli economy by indexing prices to the dollar, issuing a new Shekel, and stopping the central bank from financing government spending directly;
  • His conversation with his father on the inflation and currencies as he grew older;
  • Finding Austrian economics after listening to Ron Paul in 2012;
  • Open interest on the COMEX futures exchange in New York, and why more traders are likely to demand actual physical delivery of gold;
  • The value of physical gold ownership versus some gold ETFs if you believe the dollar will eventually collapse – the GLD will not have any true value in that scenario;
  • Why the dollar is not money, but a gold intermediary (implying that gold is actual money);
  • Ownership of gold stocks is a title claim to real capital, while ownership of the GLD index isn’t because non-institutional investors cannot demand physical delivery;
  • Picks mining stocks based upon jurisdiction of the mines and company balance sheet healthy;
  • Best ETF if you cannot get physical gold right now is the Perth Mint Physical Gold ETF;
  • US China trade relationship – US exporting inflation and China’s old mercantilist economic beliefs saddling them with US treasuries in exchange for real goods;
  • The current US/China trade system must collapse as China eventually rids itself of US debt, causing a new gold standard and change in economic policies;
  • When the dollar falls, all other currencies will fall;
  • Calculating US must spend $100 trillion to make up for GDP falling 40% per JP Morgan’s Q2 2020 estimate, YoY;
  • How COVID-19 caused casino closures and is driving gamblers to online outlets;
  • Cambodia’s monopoly on the gaming market;
  • How Caesars stuffed bad assets into a shell company and stuck equity holders with the fallout;
  • He wrote articles warning Carl Icahn not to support El Dorado buying Caesars and the subsequent share price crash after it happened;
  • Bad debt yield attracting investment and how this is a sign of debt market collapse;
  • Bankruptcies are the cure to bad debt, and government’s choice of allowing them to happen or the other path of hyperinflation of the US Dollar.






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